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William D. Larson

Welcome to my webpage. I am a senior economist at the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The views on this website are my own and do not represent those of the FHFA.

My contact information and papers can be found here. Please contact me if you'd like to see any of my working papers, data, or programs.

My current research interests include: land and house price measurement; regional housing and labor market dynamics; energy and urbanization; and sports forecasting.


Upcoming Presentations:

University Seminar on Forecasting, George Washington University, Washington, DC, September 29, 2016
Presenting the paper: "Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Credit Modeling"

AEI/CRN Housing Risk Conference, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC, October 5, 2016
Serving on a panel: "The housing cycle: Measuring intrinsic value"

ASSA/AREUEA Session, Chicago, IL, January 6/7, 2017
Discussing the paper: "Do the Determinants of House Prices Change Over Time? Evidence From 200 Years of Transactions Data" in the session, "House Price Determination", January 6, 2017
Presenting the paper: "Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts" in the session "House Prices, Discount Rates and Taxes", January 7, 2017


Publications and Works in Progress

Publications

Telework: Urban Form, Energy Consumption, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Implications, with Weihua Zhao, Economic Inquiry, Forthcoming.

The Energy Implications of City Size and Density, with Anthony Yezer, Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 90, 2015.

Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the U.S. and the Netherlands, with Paul Carrillo and Erik De Wit, Real Estate Economics, Vol. 43, No. 3, 2015.

Population Matters When Modeling Hurricane Fatalities, with Laura Bakkensen, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 50, 2014.

Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and Their Impact on Growth Estimates, with Simon Johnson, Arvind Subramanian, and Chris Papageorgiou, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 60, No. 2, 2013.

Energy Footprint of the City: Effects of Urban Land Use and Transportation Policies, with Feng Liu and Anthony Yezer, Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 72, No. 2/3, 2012.

Energy Consumption, Housing, and Urban Development Policy, with Feng Liu and Anthony Yezer. In Susan Smith (editor), International Encyclopedia of Housing and Home, (pp. 80-86), Elsevier, San Diego, 2012.

Under Review

Oil Prices and Urban Housing Demand, with Weihua Zhao

Local House Price Growth Accelerations, with William Doerner and Alex Bogin

Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts, with William Doerner and Alex Bogin

"Surviving a Hurricane: Urban Decline, Hurricane Expectations, and the Dynamics of Local Supply Shocks," with Kyle Hood (Revise and Resubmit, Regional Science and Urban Economics)

Forecasting Aggregates with Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates GWU Research Program on Forecasting Working Paper Series, 2015-002

Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Valuation Implications, with William Doerner and Alex Bogin (2016 Winner, American Real Estate Society, Best Paper, "Real Estate Market Analysis")

Work in Progress

Transaction Price Anomalies: Mortgage Performance and Price Index Consequences, with Paul Carrillo

Plausibly Exogenous Demand Indicators for Cities and Regions, with Dan Broxterman

Safe Houses? Transaction Cost and Payday Volatility, with Peter Chinloy

"Detroit's Blight vs Boston's Back Bay: When do Urban Land Markets Fail?," with Feng Liu

Other Papers

"Housing and Labor Market Dynamics in Growing Versus Declining Cities"

"New Estimates of Value of Land of the United States"

"A Land Valuation Framework for the FRB/BEA Integrated Macroeconomic Account"

Evaluating Alternative Methods of Forecasting House Prices: A Post-Crisis Reassessment GWU Research Program on Forecasting Working Paper Series, 2010-004

Service

Referee: AEJ: Policy, Economic Inquiry, Real Estate Economics, Journal of Empirical Finance, Regional Science and Urban Economics, International Journal of Forecasting, Economic Letters, Eastern Economic Journal, Economic Development Quarterly, Journal of Macroeconomics

Press Hits

Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts
     Americans are paying more to live in the very places they once abandoned - Washington Post
     Americans are paying more and more to live in the same places they once abandoned - Chicago Tribune
     Center-City Housing is Making a Comeback - The M Report
     More Affluent Americans Moving Into Cities, Making Them More Expensive - Consumerist
     Americans paying more and more to live in the same places they once abandoned - Keene Sentinel

The Energy Implications of City Size and Density:
     Energy Use in Cities: A New Model Simulating Growth and Land Use Policies - The Institute for International Economic Policy

New Estimates of Value of Land of the United States:
     Press:
     National Parks Are Economic Engines Across America: Graphic Shows How - National Geographic, September 8, 2016
     America's Most (and Least) Valuable States - 24/7 Wall Street, June 3, 2015
     How Much Money Is America Worth? About $23 Trillion - Cheatsheet, May 16, 2015
     Study: Land in RI is second-most-valuable in the US - WPRI, Apr 28, 2015
     Fun Number: The US Is Worth $23 Trillion. Or, Why A Land Value Tax Won't Work - Forbes, Apr 23, 2015
     How Much Is the U.S. Worth? - Wall Street Journal, Apr 22, 2015
     New federal report shows land value estimates across US - Houston Chronicle, Apr 14, 2015
     The Real Role of Land Values in the United States - CityLab (the Atlantic), Apr 10, 2015

Baseball Statistics and Forecasting

Baseball Projection Project:
A little crowdsourced baseball forecasting website I put together a few years ago.

Moonshot: Predicting Uncertainty, with Rob Arthur, Baseball Prospectus, January 16, 2015.

Evaluating 2013 Projections, Fangraphs, 2014.

Evaluating 2012 Projections, Fangraphs, 2013.

Comparing 2011 Hitter Projections, Fangraphs, 2012,

Comparing 2011 Pitcher Projections, Fangraphs, 2012.

Comparing 2010 Hitter Projections, part 1, Fangraphs, 2011.

Comparing 2010 Hitter Projections, part 2, Fangraphs, 2011.

Projecting uncertainty, Fangraphs, 2011.

Comparing 2010 Pitcher Projections, Fangraphs, 2011.

updated 4/6/16