William D. Larson's Webpage

Web Page of William D. Larson

Welcome to my webpage. I am an economist at the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The views on this website are my own and do not represent those of the Bureau or the Department of Commerce.

My contact information and papers can be found here. Please contact me if you'd like to see any of my working papers, data, or programs.

My current research interests include: land and house price measurement; regional housing and labor market dynamics; energy and urbanization; and sports forecasting.

Publications and Works in Progress

Under Review

"Forecasting Aggregates with Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates"

"The Energy Implications of City Size and Density," with Anthony Yezer, Revise and Resubmit

"Surviving a Hurricane: Urban Decline and the Dynamics of Local Supply Shocks," with Kyle Hood

"Housing and Labor Market Dynamics in Growing Versus Declining Cities," Revise and Resubmit

"Detroit's Blight vs Boston's Back Bay: When do Urban Land Markets Fail?," with Feng Liu


Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the U.S. and the Netherlands, with Paul Carrillo and Erik De Wit, Real Estate Economics, Forthcoming

Population Matters When Modeling Hurricane Fatalities, with Laura Bakkensen, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 50, 2014

Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and Their Impact on Growth Estimates, with Simon Johnson, Arvind Subramanian, and Chris Papageorgiou, Journal of Monetary Economics Vol. 60, No. 2, 2013.

Energy Footprint of the City: Effects of Urban Land Use and Transportation Policies, with Feng Liu and Anthony Yezer, Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 72, No. 2/3, 2012.

Energy Consumption, Housing, and Urban Development Policy, with Feng Liu and Anthony Yezer. In Susan Smith (editor), International Encyclopedia of Housing and Home, (pp. 80-86), Elsevier, San Diego, 2012.

Working Papers

"A Land Valuation Framework for the FRB/BEA Integrated Macroeconomic Account"

"Evaluating Alternative Methods of Forecasting House Prices: A Post-Crisis Reassessment." GWU Research Program on Forecasting Working Paper Series, 2010-004

Baseball Statistics and Forecasting

Baseball Projection Project:
A little crowdsourced baseball forecasting website I put together a few years ago.

Moonshot: Predicting Uncertainty, with Rob Arthur, Baseball Prospectus, January 16, 2015.

Evaluating 2013 Projections, Fangraphs, 2014.

Evaluating 2012 Projections, Fangraphs, 2013.

Comparing 2011 Hitter Projections, Fangraphs, 2012,

Comparing 2011 Pitcher Projections, Fangraphs, 2012.

Comparing 2010 Hitter Projections, part 1, Fangraphs, 2011.

Comparing 2010 Hitter Projections, part 2, Fangraphs, 2011.

Projecting uncertainty, Fangraphs, 2011.

Comparing 2010 Pitcher Projections, Fangraphs, 2011.