Some Recent Press Hits
Publications and Works in Progress
Publications
Real Estate Economics, Accepted, 2024, A flexible method of housing price index construction using repeat-sales aggregates, with Justin Contat.
Review of Finance, 2023, A Quarter Century of Mortgage Risk, with Morris Davis, Stephen Oliner, and Benjamin Smith.
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2023, House Price Markups and Mortgage Defaults, with Paul Carrillo and William Doerner.
Real Estate Economics, 2023, The Riskiness of Outstanding Mortgages in the United States, 1999 – 2019.
Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2022, Urban Planning Policies and the Cost of Labor in Large Cities, with Weihua Zhao and Anthony Yezer.
Journal of Housing Economics, 2022, Land Valuation using Public Records and Kriging: Implications for Land versus Property Taxation in Cities, with Jessica Shui.
International Journal of Forecasting, 2022, Forecasting Unemployment Insurance Claims in the Time of COVID-19, with Tara Sinclair.
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2021, The Price of Residential Land for Counties, ZIP codes, and Census Tracts in the United States, with Morris Davis, Stephen Oliner, and Jessica Shui.
Energy Economics, 2020, Effects of Land Use and Transportation Policies on the Spatial Distribution of Urban Energy Consumption in Brazil, with Andressa Lemes Proque, Gervásio Ferreira dos Santos, and Admir Antonio Betarelli Júnior.
Real Estate Economics, 2020, Oil Prices and Urban Housing Demand, with Weihua Zhao.
Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2020, Self-Driving Cars and the City: Effects on Sprawl, Energy Consumption, and Housing Affordability, with Weihua Zhao.
Journal of Regional Science, 2020, An Empirical Examination of Shift‐share Instruments, with Dan Broxterman.
Nature: Sustainability, 2020, A benefit–cost analysis of floodplain land acquisition for U.S. flood damage reduction, with Johnson et al.
Financial Analysts Journal, 2019 Missing the Mark: Mortgage Asset Valuation Accuracy and Credit Modeling, with William Doerner and Alex Bogin.
Real Estate Economics, 2018, Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts, with William Doerner and Alex Bogin.
Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2017, Local House Price Paths: Accelerations, Declines, and Recoveries, with William Doerner and Alex Bogin.
Economic Inquiry, 2017, Telework: Urban Form, Energy Consumption, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Implications, with Weihua Zhao.
Real Estate Economics, 2015, Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the U.S. and the Netherlands, with Paul Carrillo and Erik De Wit.
Journal of Urban Economics, 2015, The Energy Implications of City Size and Density, with Anthony Yezer.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2014, Population Matters When Modeling Hurricane Fatalities, with Laura Bakkensen.
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2013, Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and Their Impact on Growth Estimates, with Simon Johnson, Arvind Subramanian, and Chris Papageorgiou.
Journal of Urban Economics, 2012, Energy Footprint of the City: Effects of Urban Land Use and Transportation Policies, with Feng Liu and Anthony Yezer.
International Encyclopedia of Housing and Home, 2012, Energy Consumption, Housing, and Urban Development Policy, with Feng Liu and Anthony Yezer; Susan Smith (editor).
Under Review
Borrower Expectations and Mortgage Performance: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic , with Christos Makridis and Chad Redmer.
The Urban Equilibrium Effects of Electric Vehicle Tax Credits , with Weihua Zhao and Becka Brolinson.
Completed Working Papers
The Social Costs of Interrupted Development, with Feng Liu
The Daily Microstructure of the Housing Market, with Peter Chinloy
Surviving a Hurricane: Urban Decline, Hurricane Expectations, and the Dynamics of Local Supply Shocks, with Kyle Hood
Forecasting Aggregates with Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates GWU Research Program on Forecasting Working Paper Series, 2015-002
"Housing and Labor Market Dynamics in Growing Versus Declining Cities"
"New Estimates of Value of Land of the United States"
"A Land Valuation Framework for the FRB/BEA Integrated Macroeconomic Account"
Evaluating Alternative Methods of Forecasting House Prices: A Post-Crisis Reassessment GWU Research Program on Forecasting Working Paper Series, 2010-004
Service
Program Committee: 2017, 2018 AREUEA Mid-year MeetingsReferee: AEJ: Policy, Journal of Urban Economics, Economic Inquiry, Real Estate Economics, Journal of Empirical Finance, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Journal of Regional Science, Journal of Housing Economics, International Journal of Forecasting, Economic Letters, Eastern Economic Journal, Economic Development Quarterly, Journal of Macroeconomics
Press Hits
Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized FactsSuburbs House More Poor Americans Than 'Inner-Cities' - NBC News
Actually, Many "Inner Cities" Are Doing Great - New York Times
Americans are paying more to live in the very places they once abandoned - Washington Post
How to Tell If a Home Price Index Is Useful - National Mortgage Market News
Americans are paying more and more to live in the same places they once abandoned - Chicago Tribune
Center-City Housing is Making a Comeback - The M Report
More Affluent Americans Moving Into Cities, Making Them More Expensive - Consumerist
Americans paying more and more to live in the same places they once abandoned - Keene Sentinel
The Energy Implications of City Size and Density:
Energy Use in Cities: A New Model Simulating Growth and Land Use Policies - The Institute for International Economic Policy
New Estimates of Value of Land of the United States:
National Parks Are Economic Engines Across America: Graphic Shows How - National Geographic, September 8, 2016
America's Most (and Least) Valuable States - 24/7 Wall Street, June 3, 2015
How Much Money Is America Worth? About $23 Trillion - Cheatsheet, May 16, 2015
Study: Land in RI is second-most-valuable in the US - WPRI, Apr 28, 2015
Fun Number: The US Is Worth $23 Trillion. Or, Why A Land Value Tax Won't Work - Forbes, Apr 23, 2015
How Much Is the U.S. Worth? - Wall Street Journal, Apr 22, 2015
New federal report shows land value estimates across US - Houston Chronicle, Apr 14, 2015
The Real Role of Land Values in the United States - CityLab (the Atlantic), Apr 10, 2015
Baseball Statistics and Forecasting
Moonshot: Predicting Uncertainty, with Rob Arthur, Baseball Prospectus, January 16, 2015.
Evaluating 2013 Projections, Fangraphs, 2014.
Evaluating 2012 Projections, Fangraphs, 2013.
Comparing 2011 Hitter Projections, Fangraphs, 2012,
Comparing 2011 Pitcher Projections, Fangraphs, 2012.
Comparing 2010 Hitter Projections, part 1, Fangraphs, 2011.
Comparing 2010 Hitter Projections, part 2, Fangraphs, 2011.
Projecting uncertainty, Fangraphs, 2011.
Comparing 2010 Pitcher Projections, Fangraphs, 2011.